Chapter 6 The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict

The end of the Cold War has been accompanied by the emergence of nationalist, ethnic, and religious conflict in Eurasia. However, the risks and intensity of these conflicts have varied from region to region: Ukrain­ ians and Russians are still getting along relatively well; Serbs and Slovenians had a short, sharp clash; Serbs, Croats, and Bosnian Muslims have waged open warfare; and Armenians and Azeris seem destined to fight a slow-motion attrition war. The claim that newly released, age-old antipathies account for this violence fails to explain the considerable variance in observable intergroup relations. The purpose of this chapter is to apply a basic concept from the realist tradition of international relations theory, "the security dilemma," to the special conditions that arise when proximate groups of people suddenly find themselves newly responsible for their own security. A group sud­ denly compelled to provide its own protection must ask the following questions about any neighboring group: Is it a threat? How much of a threat? Will the threat grow or diminish over time? Is there anything that must be done immediately? The answers to these questions strongly influence the chances for war. This chapter assesses the factors that could produce an intense security dilemma when imperial order breaks down, thus producing an early resort to violence. The security dilemma is then employed to analyze two· cases-the breakup of Yugoslavia and relations between Russia and Ukraine-to illustrate its utility. Finally, some actions are suggested to ameliorate the tendency toward violence.